An integrated fuzzy decision-making framework for the evaluation of electric buses in public transportation: A case study in Istanbul, Türkiye

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and environmental concerns have accelerated the transition to sustainable public transportation alternatives in place of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Electric buses (EBs) are emerging as a competitive alternative due to their economic, social and environmental advantages. This study focuses on providing practical guidance for integrating sustainable EB solutions into urban transit networks. In this study, an integrated approach is proposed, encompassing a combined picture fuzzy logarithmic decomposition of criteria importance (PF-LODECI) and picture fuzzy alternative ranking technique based on adaptive standardized intervals (PF-ARTASI) methods to support the evaluation and selection of EBs under uncertainty. Unlike prior studies that often focus solely on economic or environmental criteria, this research adopts a comprehensive perspective by incorporating economic, technical, environmental, and social dimensions. A real-world case study in Türkiye is conducted; five electric bus alternatives are evaluated based on four main criteria and twenty-seven sub-criteria. Furthermore, the stability and consistency of the results obtained are confirmed through the implementation of a sensitivity analysis. In addition, the findings offer insights into the economic and welfare implications of electric bus adoption in large urban public transport systems, particularly in terms of cost efficiency, externality reduction, and service quality improvements.