Identifying critical export performance drivers through SWARA analysis: Internal vs. external factors

Abstract

This study aims to identify and prioritize the key factors influencing export performance among Turkish exporters, based on the resource-based view (RBV) and industrial organization theory (IO), categorizing the factors as internal and external, and employing the Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA). Twenty-five factors across Internal (IF) and External (EF) categories were evaluated through expert assessments. Results reveal that Internal Factors (58.0%) significantly dominate External Factors (42.0%), indicating that Turkish exporters possess substantial control over their export competitiveness. The top five critical factors are Management and Leadership (9.6%), Strategy (6.2%), Technological Change (5.3%), Industry and Sector Activity (5.0%), and Competitors (5.0%). Surprisingly, traditional factors such as firm size, international experience, and digitalization ranked much lower, challenging conventional assumptions about export success. A leave-one-out (LOO) sensitivity analysis further validated the robustness of these rankings, with Management and Leadership, and Strategy emerging as the most stable and dominant factors across all scenarios. The predominance of management and strategic factors over structural characteristics suggests that even smaller, less experienced companies can achieve export success through effective leadership and strategic planning. These findings contribute theoretically by supporting the notion that the resource-based view has a greater impact on export performance than the industrial organization theory, and they provide practical guidance for companies to focus on managerial and leadership skills, organizational capabilities, and strategic approaches to enhance export investments. The study presents the first comprehensive SWARA-based ranking of export performance factors in the Turkish context, providing empirical evidence to support the internal-external factor debate in the international business literature.