Navigating a contested hierarchy: Competing strategies of Japan and Türkiye in the US-led order

Abstract

The US-led hierarchical order has come under increasing strain asthe United States has shifted from a relatively restrained provider ofinternational order towards a more unilateral and transactionalposture, generating uncertainty among its allies. These pressureshave been compounded by the rise of China and Russia, whichprovide alternative centres of power for some states while posingstrategic threats to others. States traditionally dependent on theUnited States have consequently recalibrated their strategies. Twocontrasting responses are high-intensity hedging and leash-slipping. Both employ similar means but pursue different ends.High-intensity hedging reinforces dependence on the UnitedStates by enhancing a state’s strategic value, whereas leash-slipping seeks greater autonomy by loosening dependence withoutexiting the alliance. This divergence raises a central question: whydo states adopt different strategies within the same hierarchicalorder? This study addresses this puzzle through a three-level frame-work and a comparative analysis of Japan and Türkiye.