An agent-based model of Ibn Khaldun’s Asabiyah and wellbeing: Mechanisms, simulation, and empirical validation with World Values Survey

Abstract

This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) to examine how social cohesion, understood through Ibn Khaldun’s concept of Asabiyah, emerges from microlevel interactions and influences collective wellbeing. We operationalize social cohesion as a composite state of positive and negative social interactions, shared values, and learning-driven alignment, Total Social Cohesion (TSC), and wellbeing as a composite outcome that blends material and value-driven wellbeing, Total Wellbeing (TWB). The ABM generates emergent trajectories of cohesion and wellbeing under varying social and environmental conditions. To ground and test the model, we map ABM-derived cohesion and wellbeing dynamics to two empirically derived indices: the Social Cohesion Index (SCI) and the Wellbeing Index (WBI) derived from WVS Wave 7 data. The two-stage design—simulation followed by empirical validation—offers a transparent bridge between theory and data, highlights emergent mechanisms, and reveals contexts in which cohesion translates into wellbeing. We report robustness checks across parameter ranges and discuss implications for computational social science and policy. Limitations are acknowledged where measurement, abstraction, and cross-country comparability constrain inference.