Forecasting intermittent demand using the cox process
[ N/A ]
Tarih
2018
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Old City Publishing
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
If a demand has infrequent demand occurrences and irregular demand sizes, then it is intermittent demand. Generally, intermittent demand appears at random, with many time periods having no demand. Owing to peculiar characteristics of intermittent demand, demand forecasting for intermittent demand is especially difficult. There are ad hoc methods developed for intermittent demand forecasting. Since Cox process has shown superior performance for intermittent demand forecasting, we studied forecasting intermittent demand using Cox process in this study. We develop a new method for estimating Cox process intensity which is called Reversed Leven and Segerstedt (RLS) method. Moreover, we propose a novel method which is a Wavelet Transform and Reversed Leven and Segerstedt conjunction model for intermittent demand forecasting using Cox process. Using real data set of 500 kinds of spare parts from an aviation sector company in Turkey, we show that our method produces more accurate forecasts than other intermittent demand forecasting methods using Cox process. The comparison approach has a lead time perspective which is based on lead time ahead demand forecast and lead time demand forecast errors.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Cox process, Forecasting, Intermittent Demand, Lead Time Demand, Leven and Segerstedt, Wavelet Transform, Wavelet Transforms, Wavelet Transform, Cox Process, Demand Forecast, Demand Forecasting, Intermittent Demand, Irregular Demand, Lead Time Demands, Leven and Segerstedt, Forecasting
Kaynak
Journal of Multiple-Valued Logic and Soft Computing
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
31
Sayı
5.Haz
Künye
Kaya, G. Ö., Demirel, Ö. F. ve Beyca, Ö. F. (2018). Forecasting intermittent demand using the cox process. Journal of Multiple-Valued Logic and Soft Computing, 31(5-6), 425 - 441.
