African regionalism: Subregional power shifts and their impact on African Union integration

Abstract

This paper addresses the persistent gap between the African Union’s (AU) ambitious goal of deep regional integration and its limited progress. While much scholarship attributes this stagnation to institutional weaknesses, structural constraints, and cultural heterogeneity, often in comparison with the European Union, this study identifies a neglected dimension: the impact of subregional power shifts on continental integration. This approach is novel because existing studies of AU integration overwhelmingly priorities institutional design, normative frameworks, or overlapping membership problems, while paying insufficient attention to how subregional power shifts structurally constrain wider continental cohesion. Using a neorealist framework, particularly Waltz’s (1979) balance of power and Mearsheimer’s (2014) offensive realism, it argues that instability within the AU’s eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) undermines cohesion at the continental level. The analysis draws on updated 2024 GDP per capita and military expenditure data from the World Bank (2024) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2024), alongside alliance patterns within four politically and economically significant RECs: the Arab Maghreb Union, East African Community, Southern African Development Community, and Economic Community of West African States. Findings show that recurring rivalries within these four major regional blocs generate multipolar instability at the subregional level, which then spills over into AU decision-making.