Changes in the spheres of influence in Kazakhstan after the outbreak of the Ukraine War in 2022

Abstract

This report provides the reasons for the change in Kazakhstan’s spheres of influence following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. It focuses on the economic aspects of the spheres of influence and the influence of Russia, China, Türkiye, and the E.U. The central thesis is that Russia has expanded its influence in Kazakhstan as dual-use goods are transported through the country. The analysis is based on the theory of a “negotiated hegemon,” which depicts Russia as a hegemon in Kazakhstan whose influence is limited by negotiations with Kazakhstan. The results show Russia has political and military influence, while the E.U. dominates economically. China’s influence is less than expected, and Türkiye has the least influence before and after the war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan is trying to balance Russia’s growing influence through global relations and cooperation with other actors while building trade relations with Russia within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.