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Yayın A comparative assessment of frequentist forecasting models: Evidence from the S&P 500 pharmaceuticals index(İstanbul University Press, 2023) Muneza, Christian; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Badshah, Waqar; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis paper compares three forecasting methods, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and neural network autoregression (NNAR) methods, using the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals Index. The objective is to identify the most accurate model based on the mean average forecasting error (MAFE). The results consistently show the NNAR model to outperform ARIMA and GARCH and to exhibit a significantly lower MAFE. The existing literature presents conflicting findings on forecasting model accuracy for stock indexes. While studies have explored various models, no universally applicable model exists. Therefore, a comparative analysis is crucial. The methodology includes data collection and cleaning, exploratory analysis, and model building. The daily closing prices of pharmaceutical stocks from the S&P 500 serve as the dataset. The exploratory analysis reveals an upward trend and increasing heteroscedasticity in the pharmaceuticals index, with the unit root tests confirming non-stationarity. To address this, the dataset has been transformed into stationary returns using logarithmic and differencing techniques. Model building involves splitting the dataset into training and test sets. The training set determines the best-fit models for each method. The models are then compared using MAFE on the test set, with the model possessing the lowest MAFE being considered the best. The findings provide insights into model accuracy for pharmaceutical industry indexes, aiding investor predictions, with the comparative analysis emphasizing tailored forecasting models for specific indexes and datasets.Yayın Are the crypto markets shock resilient to COVID-19? A comparative investigation of trading prices and volumes(Econometric Research Association, 2024) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Bwando, William; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe emergence of crypto currency as an alternative source of currency has been dubbed as one of the greatest phenomenon of the 21st century. Over the years, crypto currencies have grossly interrupted the traditional financial system and they continue to act as a catalyst for its revolution. However, cryptocurrencies have not been free from misery and controversies. The aim of this study is to explore and investigate empirically the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on price and volume dynamics in crypto markets. The study makes use of two data samples, but these samples are analyzed separately and independently. The first sample consists of Top Five Cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Binance coin and Litecoin) as at 7 November 2020. The second one is made up of the Bottom Five Cryptocurrencies among the top 40 cryptocurrencies (FTX Token, Huobi Token, Filecoin, Dash and Decreed) as at 7 November 2020 again. The data among the Top Five Cryptocurrencies ranges from 2014 to 2021 and the data among the Bottom Five Cryptocurrencies ranges from 2018 to 2021.. The empirical results reveal that all crypto-currencies are integrated at order 1 i.e. I (1). The empirical analysis confirms presence of strong evidence for intra-and-inter long run relationship between price and volume dynamics within the crypto market irrespective of whether it is pre-pandemic or pandemic period. More so, there is convincing evidence from the results that much of the variance among the prices and volumes of the top five cryptocurrencies is attributed to the Bitcoin price-volume dynamics. This implies that it is critical for crypto market traders, investors and portfolio managers, before making any investment decision must consider the dynamics of price and trading volumes of BITCOIN as they hugely impact the prices and volumes of other altcoins.Yayın Are the crypto markets shock resilient to COVID-19? A comparative investigation of trading prices and volumes(Econometric Research Association, 2025) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Bwando, William; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe emergence of crypto currency as an alternative source of currency has been dubbed as one of the greatest phenomenon of the 21st century. Over the years, crypto currencies have grossly interrupted the traditional financial system and they continue to act as a catalyst for its revolution. However, cryptocurrencies have not been free from misery and controversies. The aim of this study is to explore and investigate empirically the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on price and volume dynamics in crypto markets. The study makes use of two data samples, but these samples are analyzed separately and independently. The first sample consists of Top Five Cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Binance coin and Litecoin) as at 7 November 2020. The second one is made up of the Bottom Five Cryptocurrencies among the top 40 cryptocurrencies (FTX Token, Huobi Token, Filecoin, Dash and Decreed) as at 7 November 2020 again. The data among the Top Five Cryptocurrencies ranges from 2014 to 2021 and the data among the Bottom Five Cryptocurrencies ranges from 2018 to 2021.. The empirical results reveal that all crypto-currencies are integrated at order 1 i.e. I (1). The empirical analysis confirms presence of strong evidence for intra-and-inter long run relationship between price and volume dynamics within the crypto market irrespective of whether it is pre-pandemic or pandemic period. More so, there is convincing evidence from the results that much of the variance among the prices and volumes of the top five cryptocurrencies is attributed to the Bitcoin price-volume dynamics. This implies that it is critical for crypto market traders, investors and portfolio managers, before making any investment decision must consider the dynamics of price and trading volumes of BITCOIN as they hugely impact the prices and volumes of other altcoins.Yayın Asymmetric effects of economic growth, fossil fuel consumption, and financial development on carbon emissions in Ghana(Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, 2024) Abdul Rahman, Mutawakil; Iftikhar, Sundas; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis research analyzes the impact of economic expansion, non-renewable energy consumption (NonREC), financial sector improvement, and carbon releases in Ghana. The study used yearly data from 1971 to 2014 and applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method to examine the data. The NARDL approach facilitated the differentiation of variables into favorable and unfavorable adjustments by examining the short-and long-run effects. The results indicated that all the independent variables exhibited short-term asymmetries, while economic growth presented long-term asymmetry. Negative adjustments in economic expansion led to a decline in carbon releases in the long run but an increase in the short run. favorable and unfavorable adjustments in NonREC positively and negatively impact carbon releases in both the short and long term. Additionally, negative adjustments in financial development positively affected carbon releases in the long run. The cumulative dynamic multipliers graphs and impulse response function graphs illustrate the same impact pattern of the independent variables on carbon releases, confirming the findings' robustness. The study suggests implementing environmental policies in Ghana that promote renewable sources of energy and energy-conserving innovations to reduce environmental degradation. The findings recommend that the decision-maker prioritize effective environmental strategies like a green economy, renewable energy use, and energy-saving technologies. By adopting clean energy and implementing advanced technologies, sustainable economic growth can be achieved while preserving the environment and the ecosystem.Yayın Balancing growth and sustainability: The impact of Greenfield investment on trade adjusted carbon emissions(Elsevier, 2024) Raza, Ali; Azam, Kamran; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Badshah, Waqar; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüIn the last two decades, the surge in carbon emissions has escalated environmental damage and is a major concern globally. Recognized as a significant threat to humanity, unchecked environmental degradation can potentially hinder the achievement of sustainable development. As a result, accurate monitoring of carbon emissions becomes imperative for formulating effective climate policies. Taking into consideration, this study has taken the newly developed consumption-based carbon emissions measure to study the pollution haven hypothesis and examine the link between Greenfield Investment (GFI) inflows to host nations and their environmental impact for 85 developing countries from 1990 to 2020. The results show a positive correlation between Greenfield investment and Consumption-based Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CCO 2 ) in sampled nations. Similarly, energy usage and export damage the environment because developing countries rely on conventional and old methods of energy usage. The results were further analyzed for low, lower middle, and upper middle income countries as well. The subsample outcome shows that Greenfield investment has a more damaged environment in low income countries as compared to lower middle and upper middle income countries. These insights underscore the urgency for developing countries to adopt environmentally conscious policies to attract international investors. It also emphasizes the need for stringent regulations aimed at curbing environmental pollution and complying with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similarly, low and lower middle income countries to attract Greenfield investment, may also focus more on strict environmental pollution policies. Industries must be shifted from conventional energy methods to renewable energy sources. Sustainable Development Goals; 7, 12, and 13 can be achieved by host countries, alluring investors to invest in terms of Greenfield in renewable energy resources, which would be used in automobile transportation, to shift industries from conventional energy resources to renewable energy resources. The same Greenfield investment would also be used in bringing efficient machinery for more production in industries with minimal environmental pollution.Yayın Beyond GARCH: Intraday insights into the exchange rate and stock price volatility dynamics in Borsa Istanbul sectors(Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, 2024) Abdul-Rahman, Mutawakil; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Kaplan, Muhittin; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis study investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on sectoral stock volatility by employing the intraday volatility measure directly calculated from the original data, using daily data from 27 Borsa Istanbul sectors between April 29, 2003, and April 25, 2023. In the literature, GARCH models are commonly used to study the volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices, typically using aggregate data. However, the GARCH family models provide inefficient and biased estimates if they are misspecified. Moreover, using aggregate-level data may lead to biased and misleading conclusions. The research used intraday volatility measures to overcome the shortcomings of GARCH models. The ordinary least squares (OLS), GARCH (1,1) methods, and Garman and Klass (1980) volatility estimator are used. The empirical results showed that the estimates from each method vary significantly, and these disparities in the results might be due to misspecification in GARCH (1,1) models. The intraday volatility model estimation results showed that although stock price volatilities in all sectors are positively and significantly affected by exchange rate volatility, their magnitudes vary significantly. Taken together, this implies the presence of vast heterogeneities in the responses of sectoral stock price volatilities to exchange rate volatility. The results encourage policymakers to pay special attention to these heterogeneities to prevent capital flights and underinvestment. Additionally, the findings assist investors in making more effective decisions by helping them adapt their investment strategies to factor in exchange rate fluctuations and mitigate the impact of unexpected events in the exchange rate market.Yayın Bitcoin and altcoins price dependency: Resilience and portfolio allocation in COVID-19 outbreak(MDPI, 2021) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Topuz, Humeyra; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe main aim of this article is to examine the inter-relationships among the top cryptocurrencies on the crypto stock market in the presence and absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The nine chosen cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Eos, BitcoinCash, Binance, Stellar, and Tron and their daily closing price data are captured from coinmarketcap over the period from 13 September 2017 to 21 September 2020. All of the cryptocurrencies are integrated of order 1 i.e., I(1). There is strong evidence of a long-run relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins irrespective of whether it is pre-pandemic or pandemic period. It has also been found that these cryptocurrencies' prices and their inter-relationship are resilient to the pandemic. It is recommended that when the investors create investment plans and strategies they may highly consider Bitcoin and altcoins jointly as they give sustainability and resilience in the long run against the geopolitical risks and even in the tough time of the COVID-19 pandemic.Yayın Choosing solitude in turmoil, herding in the decentralized finance (DeFi) token market: An international perspective(Korea Distribution Science Assoc, 2022) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özcan, Rasim; Turgut, Murat; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüFinancial markets have long been known to be prone to behavioral biases. One such behavioural bias that is consequential yet pervasive in financial markets is the herd effect. The objective of this study is to determine whether or not there exist herd behaviour in the new and bourgeoning Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Tokens market. This is accomplished by using daily returns of 22 DeFi tokens from January 29, 2017 to August 19, 2021, and the Cross-sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) of market returns to capture herd behavior. The results fail to provide any evidence of herding in the DeFi token market on bullish days, that is days for which the average market returns is positive. For bearish days however, that is days for which the market returns is negative, our empirical findings point to the presence of adverse herding in the DeFi token market. This phenomenon can be explained to some extent by the investor composition of the DeFi market. The DeFi token space is a growth market dominated by experts and/or enthusiasts who are insulated against the temptation and panic of negative market swings by the level of market and technical information they possess on the assets they invest.Yayın Constant time calculation of the metric dimension of the join of path graphs(MDPI, 2023) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Zhang, Chuanjun; Haidar, Ghulam; Khan, Murad ul Islam; Yousafzai, Faisal; Hila, Kostaq; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe distance between two vertices of a simple connected graph G, denoted as (Formula presented.), is the length of the shortest path from u to v and is always symmetrical. An ordered subset (Formula presented.) of (Formula presented.) is a resolving set for G, if for ? (Formula presented.), there exists (Formula presented.) ? (Formula presented.). A resolving set with minimal cardinality is called the metric basis. The metric dimension of G is the cardinality of metric basis of G and is denoted as (Formula presented.). For the graph (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.), their join is denoted by (Formula presented.). The vertex set of (Formula presented.) is (Formula presented.) and the edge set is (Formula presented.). In this article, we show that the metric dimension of the join of two path graphs is unbounded because of its dependence on the size of the paths. We also provide a general formula to determine this metric dimension. We also develop algorithms to obtain metric dimensions and a metric basis for the join of path graphs, with respect to its symmetries.Yayın COVID-19 and the Okun’s law: The case of Ghana¹(Cogent OA, 2025) Abdul Malik, Amaama; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe Covid 19 pandemic was a strong shock that plummeted into the entire interconnected economic activities of the world. As a result of the lockdown associated with the pandemic, the economies of the world were affected through restrictions like lockdown leading to the reduction of economic indicators like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and increase in Unemployment. This paper set out to look at the relationship between the GDP and unemployment in Ghana in the periods prior and during the covid pandemic. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used on data from 1991 to 2021. The result shows the nonexistence of the Okun’s law in Ghana in each of these periods. We conclude by advising policy makers to implement policies that directly generate more jobs like improvement in the agriculture sector through training and financial support to enable increased employment to match the increase in economic growth.Yayın Cross country comparison and performance of model selection techniques for bounds test of cointegration: Evidence from brıcs countries(Pazıl Reklam Danışmanlık Matbaa ve Organizasyon Ltd. Şti., 2019) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüOnly unstructured single path model selection techniques i.e. Information Criteria are used by Bounds test for plausible model selection. This paper evaluates the performance of these five routinely used information criteria (AIC, AICC, BIC, BICC and HQC) along with three structured single path model selection approaches (Forward Selection, Backward Elimination and Stepwise) to be used in Bounds test for plausible model selection by examining the long-run relationship between three pairs of macroeconomic variables i.e. (Energy Consumption (EC) and GDP), (Oil Price (OP) and GDP) and (Broad Money (BM) and GDP) for BRICS countries. In addition, the existence of long run relationship for the three pairs is also assessed and compared across five BRICS economies. It is found that BIC and Backward Elimination procedures are better. Moreover, significant evidence of level relationship between (EC and GDP) and (OP and GDP) is found for all five economies except Brazil..Yayın Detecting unknown change points for heteroskedastic data(Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, 2023) Başçı, Sıdıka; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThere are several tests to detect structural change at unknown change points. The Andrews Sup F test (1993) is the most powerful, but it requires the assumption of homoskedasticity. Ahmed et al. (2017) introduced the Sup MZ test, which relaxes this assumption and tests for changes in both the coefficients of regression and variance simultaneously. In this study, we propose a model update procedure that uses the Sup MZ test to detect structural changes at unknown change points. We apply this procedure to model the weekly returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange's common stock index (BIST 100) for a 21-year period (2003-2023). Our model consists simply a mean plus noise, with occasional jumps in the level of mean or variance at unknown times. The goal is to detect these jumps and update the model accordingly. We also suggest a trading rule that uses the forecasts from our procedure and compare it to the buy-and-hold strategy.Yayın Education expenditure and economic growth nexus: Evidence from the MINT(İbn Haldun Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2022) Odeyemi, Adebayo Abdulateef; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul IslamThe MINT - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - are from the countries projected to attain a significant level of economic success in the years to come. As a result of the demographic and geographic characteristics of these countries, they have the potential to push their economies to a globally competitive standard that is suitable for rapid economic development and advancement. From the prerequisites for the actualisation of such standard is the improvement in the quality of labour and deliberate investment in human capital through education. This study examines the viability of such prospects for the MINT by investigating education expenditure and economic growth relationship in the MINT. Through the use of a panel data set ranging from the year 1994 to the year 2020, the study utilises panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) methods to examine the impact of education expenditure on growth in the MINT, and the finding from the study shows that there is a long-run relationship between education expenditure and economic growth. Expenditure on education positively affects economic growth in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. More specifically, according to findings in this study, it is observed that a unit increase in the percentage of education expenditure will result in a 3 - 4 per cent increase in economic growth in the MINT. Labour also significantly impacts economic growth in the MINT. The results for the countries imply that expenditure on education and human capital should be encouraged, as evidence from this study conforms to findings from the literature.Yayın Effect of monetary policy on the Nigerian stock market: A smooth transition autoregressive approach(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2021) Babangida, Jamilu S.; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis paper examines the nonlinear effect of monetary policy decisions on the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange market, by employing the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model on monthly data from 2013 M4 to 2019 M12 for All Share Index and monetary policy instrument. This study considers the two regimes characterizing the stock market, which are the lower regime (the bear market) and the upper regime (the bull market). The results show evidence of nonlinear effect of monetary policy on the stock exchange market. Monetary policy rate, money supply, lagged monetary policy rate and lagged treasury bill rate are found to have significant positive effects on the stock exchange market in the lower regime while current treasury bill rate shows a negative effect. In the upper regime, money supply and lagged treasury bill rate have significant negative effect on the stock market. The current treasury bill rate is found to have a positive effect on the stock exchange market. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should maintain a stable money supply growth that is consistent with increased activities in the Nigerian stock market.Yayın Examining the shifting dynamics of the Beveridge curve in the Turkish labor market during crises(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2024) Babangida, Jamilu Said; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüFollowing the global financial crisis, an increasing amount of attention has been directed towards examining the Beveridge curve (BC), which indicates the relationship between unemployment and vacancy rates. This research analyzes the unemployment–vacancy rate dynamics in the Turkiye labor market during both the global financial crisis and COVID-19 periods. The findings from this study demonstrate that the labor market exhibits deteriorating efficiency, as evidenced by movement of BC away from the origin. The unemployment and vacancy rates both increase over time, with a leftward (rightward) shift of BC during the global financial crisis (COVID-19) period. The study also reveals that both crises had no significant effect on unemployment–vacancy rate dynamics. In the Turkish labor market, there exists a situation where the vacancy rate is in shortfall of the unemployment level in Turkiye. This creates a positive relationship between these two factors. The labor market in Turkiye experiences inefficiencies as it struggles to generate a sufficient number of jobs to meet the demand from job seekers.Yayın Is the effect of a health crisis symmetric for physical and digital financial assets? An assessment of gold and bitcoin during the pandemic(Public Library of Science, 2023) Badshah, Waqar; Musah, Mohammed; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Özer, Ercan; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe emergence of the covid-19 health crisis, in this advanced technological era where connections between markets, nations, and economies have grown stronger than ever before, the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic quickly had an impact on both physical and digital financial assets. The Chinese financial market experienced the first consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, then spilled over to other financial markets, including those for cryptocurrencies and the precious metals. This study examines the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the volatilities of the dynamics of bitcoin and gold. Both assets share some characteristics, such as online trading platforms, however, gold is a tangible financial asset unlike bitcoin, which is digitally generated without any physical form. This study argues that the similarities and differences between bitcoin and gold play major roles in how the covid19 crisis affected their respective dynamics. Using daily data ranging from 9/22/2014 to 1/ 31/2023 and employing ARMA as the mean equation for GARCH model, the impact of the health crisis (covid-19) is examined on the volatilities of the prices and volumes of bitcoin and gold. Empirical evidence points out that, the pandemic has a symmetric impact on the volatilities of bitcoin and gold price returns, causing them to be more volatile. The impact of the covid-19 observed on the volume returns of the assets, however, is asymmetrical. The empirical results give evidence to the role that the vital differences existing between these assets played during the covid-19 pandemic.Yayın Metric dimensions of bicyclic graphs(MDPI, 2023) Khan, Asad; Haidar, Ghulam; Abbas, Naeem; Khan, Murad ul Islam; Niazi, Azmat Ullah Khan; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThe distance d(va, vb) between two vertices of a simple connected graph G is the length of the shortest path between va and vb. Vertices va, vb of G are considered to be resolved by a vertex v if d(va, v) 6= d(vb, v). An ordered set W = fv1, v2, v3, . . . , vsg V(G) is said to be a resolving set for G, if for any va, vb 2 V(G), 9 vi 2 W 3 d(va, vi) 6= d(vb, vi). The representation of vertex v with respect to W is denoted by r(vjW) and is an s-vector(s-tuple) (d(v, v1), d(v, v2), d(v, v3), . . . , d(v, vs)). Using representation r(vjW), we can say that W is a resolving set if, for any two vertices va, vb 2 V(G), we have r(vajW) 6= r(vbjW). A minimal resolving set is termed a metric basis for G. The cardinality of the metric basis set is called the metric dimension of G, represented by dim(G). In this article, we study the metric dimension of two types of bicyclic graphs. The obtained results prove that they have constant metric dimension.Yayın Moderating role of board gender diversity between odd board composition and audit quality(Johar Education Society Pakistan, 2023) Hassan, Muhammad Zia Ul; Baith, S. M. Labib Abdul; Butt, Jahanzaib Safdar; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüThis study investigates the relationship between odd board structure, board gender diversity, and audit quality in Pakistani firms. The data is collected from Pakistan Stock Exchange’s KSE100 index companies from the year 2016 to 2020. The study employs regression models to analyze the impact of an odd board structure on audit quality, as measured by audit fees. Additionally, the moderating role of board gender diversity on this relationship is examined. The findings reveal that an odd board structure positively influences audit quality, indicating that firms with an odd number of directors pay higher audit fees. However, the study could not find a significant moderating role of board gender diversity. The study recommends the adoption of an odd board structure to enhance audit quality and further emphasizes the importance of promoting board gender diversity to strengthen governance practices especially audit quality in the Pakistani context.Yayın Monetary policy and nonperforming loan ratios in a monetary union; a counterfactual study(Emerald Publishing, 2023) Özcan, Rasim; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Napari, Ayuba; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüPurpose – For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach – This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings – The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.Yayın Most stringent test of null of cointegration: A Monte Carlo comparison(Taylor & Francis, 2022) Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Asad ul Islam; Khan, Waqar Muhammad; Hussan, Mehmood; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İktisat BölümüTo test for the existence of long run relationship, a variety of null of cointegration tests have been developed in literature. This study is aimed at comparing these tests on basis of size and power using stringency criterion: a robust technique for comparison of tests as it provides with a single number representing the maximum difference between a test’s power and maximum possible power in the entire parameter space. It is found that in general, asymptotic critical values tends to produce size distortion and size of test is controlled when simulated critical values are used. The simple LM test based on KPSS statistic is the most stringent test at all sample sizes for all three specifications of deterministic component, as it has the maximum difference approaching to zero and lesser than 20% for the entire parameter space.
