Yazar "Kaya, Gamze Ogcu" seçeneğine göre listele

Listeleniyor 1 - 2 / 2
  • [ N/A ]
    Yayın
    Forecasting intermittent demand using the cox process
    (Old City Publishing, 2018) Kaya, Gamze Ogcu; Demirel, Ömer Faruk; Beyca, Ömer Faruk; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İşletme Bölümü; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İşletme Bölümü
    If a demand has infrequent demand occurrences and irregular demand sizes, then it is intermittent demand. Generally, intermittent demand appears at random, with many time periods having no demand. Owing to peculiar characteristics of intermittent demand, demand forecasting for intermittent demand is especially difficult. There are ad hoc methods developed for intermittent demand forecasting. Since Cox process has shown superior performance for intermittent demand forecasting, we studied forecasting intermittent demand using Cox process in this study. We develop a new method for estimating Cox process intensity which is called Reversed Leven and Segerstedt (RLS) method. Moreover, we propose a novel method which is a Wavelet Transform and Reversed Leven and Segerstedt conjunction model for intermittent demand forecasting using Cox process. Using real data set of 500 kinds of spare parts from an aviation sector company in Turkey, we show that our method produces more accurate forecasts than other intermittent demand forecasting methods using Cox process. The comparison approach has a lead time perspective which is based on lead time ahead demand forecast and lead time demand forecast errors.
  • Küçük Resim
    Yayın
    Intermittent demand forecasting: A guideline for method selection
    (Springer, 2020) Kaya, Gamze Ogcu; Şahin, Merve; Demirel, Ömer Fahrettin; Demirel, Ömer Fahrettin; Şahin, Merve; Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, İşletme Bölümü
    Intermittent demand shows irregular pattern that differentiates it from all other demand types. It is hard to forecasting intermittent demand due to irregular occurrences and demand size variability. Due to this reason, researchers developed ad hoc intermittent demand forecasting methods. Since intermittent demand has peculiar characteristics, it is grouped into categories for better management. In this paper, specialized methods with a focus of method selection for each intermittent demand category are considered. This work simplifies the intermittent demand forecasting and provides guidance to market players by leading the way to method selection based on demand categorization. By doing so, the paper will serve as a useful tool for practitioners to manage intermittent demand more easily.